Bayesian networks and decision graphs are formal graphical languages for representation and communication of decision scenarios requiring reasoning under uncertainty. Their strengths are two-sided. It is easy for humans to construct and to understand them, and when communicated to a computer, they can easily be compiled. Furthermore, handy algorithms are developed for analyses of the models and for providing responses to a wide range of requests such as belief updating, determining optimal strategies, conflict analyses of evidence, and most probable explanation. The book emphasizes both the human and the computer side. Part I gives a thorough introduction to Bayesian networks as well as decision trees and infulence diagrams, and through examples and exercises, the reader is instructed in building graphical models from domain knowledge. This part is self-contained and it does not require other background than standard secondary school mathematics. Part II is devoted to the presentation of algorithms and complexity issues. This part is also self-contained, but it requires that the reader is familiar with working with texts in the mathematical language. The author also: *Provides a well-founded practical introduction to Bayesian networks, decision trees and influence diagrams *Gives several examples and exercises exploiting the computer systems for Bayesian netowrks and influence diagrams *Gives practical advice on constructiong Bayesian networks and influence diagrams from domain knowledge. *Embeds decision making into the framework of Bayesian networks *Presents in detail the currently most efficient algorithms for probability updating in Bayesian networks *Discusses a wide range of analyes tools and model requests together with algorithms for calculation of responses. *Gives a detailed presentation of the currently most efficient algorithm for solving influence diagrams.
This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the Second International Conference on Technologies for Interactive Digital Storytelling and Entertainment, TIDSE 2004, held in Darmstadt, Germany in June 2004.
The 30 revised full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected for inclusion in the book; also included are the abstract of a keynote talk and 10 descriptions of demonstrations and interactive exhibitions of computer art. The papers are organized in topical sections on interactive storytelling, virtual humans, authoring, mobility, learning, theory, applications, gaming, and demonstrations and exhibitions.
'To see a scientist of Penrose's ability, stature and achievement toss large parts of modern physics into the air as though juggling balls and try to keep them aloft while marshalling them into a coherent pattern is a thing to behold. It is a wonderful illustration of a first-rate scientist doing what first-rate scientists have always done: make bold conjectures and display them for others to confirm, refute or amend.' Keith Devlin, New Scientist
'When Oxford physicist and mathematician Penrose … has something to say about general relativity, quantum physics and artificial intelligence, we would do well to listen.' Publishers Weekly
'The book is an attractive and stimulating introduction to some fascinating issues, on some of which (such as the intelligibility of the universe) theists would certainly be able to offer some alternative insights.' John Polkinghorne, Science and Christian Belief
'... one could hardly ask for a shrewder or more enthusiastic tour guide to the extremes of physics.' Scientific American
'… a stimulating and compact review of Penrose's own thinking.' Bernard Dixon, The Independent
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